Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 26.423379 29.413461 32.852764 37.163853 42.517067 49.081514 57.971341
2025-02-16 22.089193 25.997897 30.971429 38.021160 48.252692 63.546868 90.688321
2025-02-23 19.070215 23.433184 29.455232 38.965621 55.057703 85.246923 164.738687
2025-03-02 16.835558 21.405765 28.148993 39.866539 62.931793 119.430324 412.095425
2025-03-09 15.028320 19.616198 26.752372 40.194673 70.681567 172.033914 3294.186537
2025-03-16 13.750570 18.373212 25.918584 41.285782 81.860189 287.910476 NaN
2025-03-23 12.576983 17.094823 24.739216 41.291736 91.156089 514.239985 NaN
2025-03-30 11.701463 16.160622 23.968043 41.933811 104.459586 1458.526880 NaN
2025-04-06 10.991515 15.398123 23.356873 42.758163 121.366389 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 10.522366 14.978197 23.315686 45.087083 153.460541 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 9.856445 14.133292 22.268412 44.226666 166.376830 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 9.379080 13.573017 21.718511 44.675453 194.501674 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 8.959527 13.110790 21.381786 46.004637 248.909126 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 8.492468 12.521704 20.691857 45.981698 298.972731 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 8.098652 12.035832 20.168704 46.432649 382.806427 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 7.752841 11.610065 19.722889 47.060269 520.873559 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 7.414604 11.169175 19.178034 47.100960 701.633365 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 7.155831 10.860505 18.907015 48.253177 1225.707802 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 6.869215 10.472969 18.387115 48.076803 1986.556679 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 6.640501 10.182712 18.071988 48.779876 6011.078678 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 6.439670 9.932547 17.824648 49.755936 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 6.311617 9.819513 17.917867 52.708880 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 6.077848 9.471676 17.339678 51.549956 NaN NaN NaN